Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 0.069882 0.080455 0.092443 0.107115 0.124682 0.145164 0.171027
2025-11-09 0.051629 0.063661 0.078495 0.098353 0.124584 0.158536 0.206615
2025-11-16 0.041846 0.054769 0.071924 0.096840 0.132921 0.184591 0.266706
2025-11-23 0.034455 0.047533 0.066082 0.095118 0.140980 0.213472 0.342971
2025-11-30 0.029359 0.042527 0.062398 0.095828 0.153357 0.253919 0.457294
2025-12-07 0.025218 0.038176 0.058871 0.096113 0.165713 0.300142 0.609225
2025-12-14 0.021321 0.033517 0.053976 0.093050 0.171733 0.338538 0.773013
2025-12-21 0.017424 0.028209 0.047014 0.084684 0.165320 0.350188 0.887129
2025-12-28 0.015385 0.025747 0.044622 0.084575 0.176482 0.408136 1.179896
2026-01-04 0.013929 0.024081 0.043398 0.086624 0.193742 0.492432 1.652215
2026-01-11 0.012535 0.022306 0.041634 0.087129 0.207954 0.579133 2.260845
2026-01-18 0.011347 0.020740 0.040010 0.087604 0.222791 0.680375 3.119158
2026-01-25 0.010082 0.018864 0.037465 0.085425 0.230254 0.767116 4.125731
2026-02-01 0.008850 0.016879 0.034342 0.081015 0.229501 0.825441 5.144172
2026-02-08 0.008120 0.015850 0.033210 0.081709 0.246425 0.978811 7.462269
2026-02-15 0.007451 0.014855 0.031986 0.081864 0.262163 1.148892 10.832398
2026-02-22 0.006952 0.014169 0.031390 0.083774 0.286298 1.400785 17.045605
2026-03-01 0.006482 0.013481 0.030664 0.085120 0.309642 1.690569 27.058521
2026-03-08 0.005935 0.012536 0.029108 0.083355 0.318857 1.907023 39.005628
2026-03-15 0.005259 0.011205 0.026316 0.076674 0.301736 1.902090 45.178647
2026-03-22 0.004925 0.010665 0.025599 0.077119 0.320791 2.246994 73.451085
2026-03-29 0.004686 0.010329 0.025396 0.079413 0.351842 2.790581 138.197147
2026-04-05 0.004421 0.009896 0.024841 0.080251 0.376119 3.346279 254.474332